Article 50; the complexity and uncertainty of Brexit

Article 50 is part of the Lisbon Treaty which governs membership of the European Union. It allows for the withdrawal of members and would make Brexit possible. If a referendum delivered a leave verdict, David Cameron would have little option but to kick off the formal, and potentially destabilising, process of extricating Britain from the European Union. 

Once a country has formally declared that it wants to leave, it must then negotiate with the other members for up to two years about the terms of departure.  Issues at stake would include what trade tariffs Britain would face for different products and services; what rights to movement EU citizens would have into Britain (and vice versa); and how much of the financial regulation initiated in Brussels would apply.  Some have argued that this could lead to a better deal and even a second referendum.  In reality, each side will try and get as much out of it as possible.  Why should Europe be nice to us when we have given them the thumbs down?  Clearly, we are an important trading partner but not at any price.  Once we leave, we will have no voting rites within the EU and little control over our relationship with it.  In terms of travel restrictions, why shouldn't members require British citizens to have visas and pay entry and/or exit taxes?  Modest ones would be little deterrence but a nice little earner for the member states. 

The treaty also states that the period for negotiation could be extended, with the unanimous support of all member states; without such an agreement, Britain would be unceremoniously ejected when the time was up, however the picture was looking. 

Why put ourselves through this, especially when the EU has been so good for Britain in multiple ways? Yes, it needs reform BUT remember: 

Whatever the myths, British people are the biggest beneficiaries of the right to settle anywhere in the EU, more British people live in other EU countries than any other nationality! And there are about as many Brits living elsewhere in the EU as there are other EU nationals in Britain. Only 3.6% of the UK population is from another EU country. Most migration in the UK is from outside the EU. 

Compared to the UK average, EU migrants are more highly educated, more likely to be employed, and much less likely to claim benefits.  13% of working age British claim benefits as opposed to 5% of EU migrants.   The latter paid in via taxes about 30% more than they cost our public services.  

The NHS would be £125 million worse off each year if we left the EU.  Official  figures from the Department of Health show that the cost to other European countries of treating Brits abroad is more than five times the cost to the NHS of treating EU visitors here. In other words, we benefit enormously from the EU rules.

The modern day threats to Britain's security, terrorism and cross-border crime, are global in nature. Being in Europe, working with our closest neighbours and partners to tackle these threats, makes Britain safer.    

Around 2.2 million people live, work or study in another EU country with no need for visas or other travel restrictions.  British universities have received hundreds of millions of pounds of EU funding supporting research, more than any other EU country.  Almost 15,000 British students a year take advantage of The Erasmus programme which includes giving them grants to study abroad.  The EU also provides loans for post-grad courses which are often cheaper elsewhere in Europe.

I am not suggesting the EU is prefect.  Here are some reforms that need to take place. 

• We need to reduce unnecessary EU spending by reducing the proportion of its budget spent on the Common Agricultural Policy.

• We should scrap the European Economic and Social Committee and the European Parliament’s second seat in Strasbourg. This will save a £150 million a year. 
  
  
  But we are #StrongerIn. 
  
  
  
  

Europe Minister and Tory Expert on EU warns of decade of economic uncertainty with Brexit

The UK would face a decade of massive economic uncertainty with potentially disastrous consequences for business and the, pound if it were to vote to leave the EU, the Europe minister,  David Lidington says.  Mr Lidington has served a record period of six years in his post and has more experience of EU negotiations than most.
David Cameron agreed that Brexit would create “huge amounts of uncertainty” and added: “It would be our children’s futures on the table if we were to roll the dice.”
Echoing a view shared by the prime minister and George Osborne, Lidington said that, according to the EU rulebook, the UK would be cut adrift from from European treaties, and therefore the single market, two years after a vote to leave, which would be before it would have had time to negotiate replacement trade deals. “Trade deals between the EU and other countries and bilateral trade deals of any type normally take six, seven, eight years and counting,” Lidington said. “Everything we take for granted about access to the single market – trade taking place without customs checks or paperwork at national frontiers, the right of British citizens to go and live in Spain or France – those would all be up in the air. It is massive. It is massive what is at risk.

Now the G20 voices concerns about Brexit

Britain’s possible exit from the EU could pose a risk to the world economy, according to a leaked draft communique from the G20 finance ministers summit. The draft suggested that markets’ threats such as Britain’s possible exit from the EU added to economic anxiety.  The draft’s noted “the shock of a potential UK exit from the European Union” in the seventh line of its text.  It added: “While recognising these challenges, we nevertheless judge that the magnitude of recent market volatility has not reflected the underlying fundamentals of the global economy.” It added that ministers pledged not to engage in beggar-thy-neighbour currency devaluations which could unleash a wave of dangerous deflation through the global economy.

What would Brexit look like? Everyone is talking about it

In the lovely Cow & Cask micropub in Newbury everyone was talking about the referendum.  It is great to see such engagement on this complex issue.  People were worried and desperate for clarification.  They felt a responsibility to get this right.

People were concerned about the impact of EU migrants but felt there was more at stake.  In fact EU migrants are net contributors to the economy. Between 2001 and 2011, they contributed 34% more in taxes than they took out in benefits and services. Compared to the UK average, EU migrants are more highly educated, more likely to be employed, and much less likely to claim benefits.  13% of working age British claim benefits as opposed to 5% of EU migrants. The latter paid in via taxes about 30% more than they cost our public services.  

Fortunately the group was able to see beyond all the mythology around staying in and consider the consequences of leaving the EU.

These are real threats.  This is what came up:

The £ could fall and the economy go into decline (almost certain if we listen to the buisness sector)
Scotland could gain independence and get back in the EU
The situation in Ireland as a whole could deteriorate
David Cameron would resign and Boris take over
Relationships with Europe would worsen, this is likely and deeply worrying, relationships within Europe are fragile at the moment, countries are isolating themselves because they do not want to help refugees, which is shameful, this seperatism will spread, cooperation will decline, hostilities will increase, the rest is history (literally) 
UKIP???  We couldn't work that one out (in coalition with Boris??)

Better the devil we know was the conclusion

I am old enough to remember the bomb damaged inner Manchester of the 1960s. 
I have stared in fear at soldiers on the border at Londonderry with massive guns.
I am only alive because my Dad opened his parachute when he bailed out of a plane shot down by another European. 
I really fear the consequences of Brexit. 

 

Less scary scares

Lord David Owen has written a book called Vote to Leave.  I heard him on the Today programme this morning.  I couldn't understand what his point was, so I hoping no one else could.  I liked David Owen when he was a cabinet minister and I was at university.  What has happenend? 

Potentially more effective scaremongering today from Ian Duncan Smith. The work and pensions secretary said the deal showed Britain still had no controls over its borders. Duncan Smith has warned the prime minister in private that a failure to control immigration would only encourage the equivalent of the French Front National.   (frightening indeed)  Duncan Smith added that the deal would do nothing to bring down net immigration.  'If you do not control your borders my observation is that you get parties led by people like Marine Le Pen and others who feed off the back of this, and ordinary decent people feel life is out of control”.

Right, it is high time to challenge these myths and scare tactics.

We need to stop worrying so much about immigration.   Everyone seems worried about it.

In fact, British people are the EU’s biggest beneficiaries of the right to settle anywhere in the EU. More British people live in other EU countries than any other nationality! And there are about as many Brits living elsewhere in the EU as there are other EU nationals in Britain. Only 3.6% of the UK population is from another EU country. Most migration in the UK is from outside the EU, which means freedom of movement rules don’t apply and it’s completely up to the British government how to manage this migration.  An estimated 47.1% of immigrants moving to the UK in 2013 were non-EU nationals.  

EU migrants are net contributors to the economy. Between 2001 and 2011, they contributed 34% more in taxes than they took out in benefits and services. Compared to the UK average, EU migrants are more highly educated, more likely to be employed, and much less likely to claim benefits.  13% of working age British claim benefits as opposed to 5% of EU migrants.   The latter paid in via taxes about 30% more than they cost our public services. 
 

I personally believe xenophobia is fuelled more by some elements of the media than by immigration: it is people in areas of low immigration who express the most fear of immigrants.  Fear of the unknown.  I worked in a practice where more than half of the population had a language other than English as their first. I saw no problems.  Why should I? What IS the issue?   If it is overcrowding, that is something different and the infrastructure needs to respond.  Lib Dems suggest new towns.  It would help the economy. Go away IDS.  

Scare tactics begin

The prime minister’s EU renegotiation is not legally binding and could be overturned by the European Court of Justice, according to Michael Gove.  Really?  

Gove said: “The facts are that the European Court of Justice is not bound by this agreement until treaties are changed and we don’t know when that will be. I do think it’s important that people also realise that the European Court of Justice stands above every nation state, and ultimately it will decide on the basis of the treaties and this deal is not yet in the treaties.”

Do not panic, this is nonesense.  If like me you think Mr Cameron's renegotiation is an irrevelance, you won't be panicking anyway, but let's clarify none the less.  

Firstly, a No 10 spokesman said: “It is not true that this deal is not legally binding. Britain’s new settlement in the EU has legal force and is an irreversible international law decision that requires the European Court of Justice to take it into account.”

Well, you may think 'They would say that wouldn't they?'

What about this then?  The government’s most senior lawyer has slapped down Michael Gove’s claim that the UK’s new deal with the EU could be ignored by the European Court of Justice, saying there was a consensus of opinion that it was legally binding.

Jeremy Wright, the Attorney General, who sided with the government’s campaign to keep the UK in the EU, said this was not just his personal opinion but that of the government’s lawyers, the EU’s lawyers and a majority of lawyers in the country.

Mr Wright, said: “The suggestion that this agreement does not have legal effect until it is incorporated into EU treaties is not correct.  It has legal effect from the point the UK says it intends to remain in the EU, and the European Court must take it into account. The job of the European Court is to interpret the agreements between the 28 nation states of the EU. This is one of those agreements, with equivalent legal force to other agreements such as treaties.'

What's more, The EU Council president stated 'The package of reforms negotiated by David Cameron cannot be reversed by European judges. '

Donald Tusk told MEPs the deal was "legally binding and irreversible".  He added "But it will only enter into force if the British people vote to stay.   If they vote to leave, the settlement will cease to exist."

So Michael Gove is well and truly wrong.   Or as John Crace said 'more than just a little dim'. 

The campaign begins : gathering support

The campaign to Keep the UK in Europe kicked off last Saturday in Newbury, with a good old burst of British weather. EU supporters of all political parties and none, from Streatley, Hungerford and all across West Berkshire, came out to join members of the local Liberal Democrat team who organised a stall on Northbrook Street.

Local residents and visitors, alike, stopped to show their support and ask questions. They know that together the EU has created the world's largest free trade area, delivered peace, and continues to give the British people the opportunity to live, work and travel freely. Why would we want to give that up?

Organiser of the street stall Cllr Martha Vickers said: “We were glad to welcome people from all political parties and none to help out on Saturday. We will be handing out leaflets, recruiting helpers and answering questions from the public right through till the referendum on June 23rd. If anyone wants to get involved, they will be very welcome.”

It became clear that people in our area understand that our membership of the EU affects everyone,  especially young people and families who will live with the consequences of this referendum for the rest of their lives.  They are aware of the need for solid, accurate information rather than myths and emotion. Those who were were undecided and a bit confused were pleased to have an opportunity to talk.

  
I'll summarise for you the points we want to get across to reassure you that Staying In is the best thing to do.  Over the next weeks and months I will provide more information and challenge the myths out there further.  

Here goes.  

Here are three GOOD reasons why remaining IN Europe is GOOD for Britain:

1. Jobs in West Berkshire  are more secure with Britain remaining part of Europe, the biggest trading market in the world.

2. Prices are lower than they would be if we were outside Europe – meaning households in West Berkshire save an average of £450 a year.

3. Our police can make our streets safer by being part of a wider European force that successfully tackles cross border crime.

Here are some more positive aspects of the EU. 

Sometimes we are told the EU is undemocratic.  In many ways however it is democratic, more so than Westminster.  The European Parliament has better methods of ensuring that controversial legislation is not automatically agreed.  As a former Conservative UK minister once said. “It is very hard to find an EU regulation of significance that has been forced on an unwilling British minister who voted against it”. Nothing is decided at EU level unless all member countries have explicitly agreed by treaty to do so and even then, each piece of legislation must be agreed by national governments. For tax and foreign affairs, the requirement for this agreement is complete unanimity, and in other areas, there is a very high ‘qualified majority’ threshold.

The European Commission has fewer employees than a medium-sized city council in the UK. 

The European Commission doesn’t make laws. It only makes proposals, which are then debated, amended and passed (or rejected) by elected national governments and directly-elected MEPs. Only 13.2% of laws affecting the UK have been agreed at European level in the past 20 years. 

EU legislation is an exercise in cutting red tape. We need common rules for the common market to protect workers, consumers and the environment.  Instead of 28 divergent sets of national rules we have a single set of pan-European rules.   

Our businesses and inward investors are emphatic: Britain must stay in.  85% of British manufacturers want us to remain in EU.  The Federation of Small Businesses argued in 2014 that the EU is good for business: 20% of members of the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) trade overseas. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) is a strong advocate for EU membership. The head of the UK government’s export credit guarantee agency reports that EU membership is “Critical” for exporting around the world. A group of top free-market economists pointed out in 2014 that UK withdrawal from the EU would be a “grave threat” and would cause foreign investment to dry up. The Institute of Directors, Financial sector of the City of London and British Chamber of Commerce all support remaining in the EU. 

More about markets 

The EU is the world’s biggest single market; it is the UK’s biggest trading partner, accounting for over half of our world exports. We export more to Holland alone than to the entirety of the Commonwealth.  EU countries provide about two thirds of incoming goods and services.  An independent poll of the top 500 British Businesses in 2015 found that 99% of boardroom bosses want to remain in the EU.  Our government estimates that EU membership is worth £3000 a year to every British family. And the budget for the whole EU is just 1% of GDP, compared to about 49% spent by national governments. That’s just 2% of our public spending each year.  Each country’s contribution to the EU budget is proportional to its wealth: wealthier countries pay more. Over the 7-year cycle 2007-2013 our net annual contribution was about £63 per person (£3.8 billion). The UK’s contribution is much lower than other similar sized economies such as Germany and France, partly because we get a special rebate.  The financial benefits of access to the single market are estimated to be £30-£90 bn/year: a return on investment of 800% - 2370%.  

Everyone is worried about Immigration 

In fact, British people are the EU’s biggest beneficiaries of the right to settle anywhere in the EU, more British people live in other EU countries than any other nationality! And there are about as many Brits living elsewhere in the EU as there are other EU nationals in Britain. Only 3.6% of the UK population is from another EU country. Most migration in the UK is from outside the EU, which means freedom of movement rules don’t apply and it’s completely up to the British government how to manage this migration.  An estimated 47.1% of immigrants moving to the UK in 2013 were non-EU nationals.  

EU migrants are net contributors to the economy. Between 2001 and 2011, they contributed 34% more in taxes than they took out in benefits and services. Compared to the UK average, EU migrants are more highly educated, more likely to be employed, and much less likely to claim benefits.  13% of working age British claim benefits as opposed to 5% of EU migrants.   The latter paid in via taxes about 30% more than they cost our public services.  

The European Court of Human Rights has nothing to do with the EU. 

It is an entirely separate institution, with separate membership, set up by Britain after World War II to enforce the Convention on Human Rights which we helped to write. Britain has always been a signatory to this convention, and leaving the EU wouldn’t change that.  The myth that the European Court of Human Rights and the UK are forever at loggerheads, is just that,  figures show that the Court rules against the UK in less than 1% of all the cases we’re involved in.  

The NHS would be £125 million worse off each year if we left the EU.  

Official  figures from the Department of Health show that the cost to other European countries of treating Brits abroad is more than five times the cost to the NHS of treating EU visitors here. In other words, we benefit enormously from the EU rules.

What about the Enviroment?  

Creating a European Super grid has the potential to turn the UK into a net exporter of energy and significantly reduce the cost of investing in offshore renewable energy technology, which would have long-term economic and environmental benefits.  

Since the introduction of the EU Bathing Water Directive, the quality of UK inland and coastal waters has improved: pollution and waste water management have been improved to such a degree that the UK now has a water quality of 98.4 per cent, exceeding the EU-wide average.  

Endangered species in the UK such as the golden eagle and otter are given strong protections through EU laws.  

However to me, the most important issue is Security and my family's safety 

The modern day threats to Britain's security, terrorism and cross-border crime, are global in nature. Being in Europe, working with our closest neighbours and partners to tackle these threats, makes Britain safer.  Whether it’s implementing sanctions against Russia, sharing intelligence about terrorists or arresting criminals using the European Arrest Warrant, there is strength in numbers.  Leaving Europe would threaten our safety. We are stronger and more secure as part of Europe than on our own. If we want Britain to be a leader in the world, we need to be in Europe helping to take the big decisions, not sitting on the sidelines, powerless. In today’s complex world, the UK has more control over its destiny by staying inside organisations like the EU. To leave Europe would mean less influence on the world stage, and less say in the future. We are stronger in Europe than on our own. 

European Arrest Warrant: criminal suspects can be easily extradited from EU countries back to the UK, putting an end to the days of the "Costa del Crime".  

Europol: The EU’s crime-fighting body, helps British police exchange crucial information and coordinate investigations including Operation Rescue which smashed the world’s largest paedophile network. Also Hussein Osman, a terrorist involved in the attempted bomb attack on London in July 2005, is one of over 400 criminals who have been returned to face justice in Britain under the European Arrest Warrant after fleeing to Europe.  

Education 


I am eagerly awaiting grandchildren and their education will be hugely important to me, as is that of the next generation in general.

I am really passionate about travel and languages, both of which have been so beneficial to me.  Around 2.2 million people live, work or study in another EU country with no need for visas or other travel restrictions.  British universities have received hundreds of millions of pounds of EU funding supporting research, more than any other EU country.  Almost 15,000 British students a year take advantage of The Erasmus programme which includes giving them grants to study abroad.  The EU also provides loans for post-grad courses which are often cheaper elsewhere in Europe.

I am not suggesting the EU is prefect.  Here are some reforms that need to take place 

• We need to reduce unnecessary EU spending by reducing the proportion of its budget spent on the Common Agricultural Policy.

• We should scrap the European Economic and Social Committee and the European Parliament’s second seat in Strasbourg. This will save a £150 million a year and cut C02 emissions by 19,000 tonnes a year.  
  
  Thanks for getting this far with my blog post and please vote to STAY IN EUROPE.

Save the Date: Catherine Bearder MEP will be visiting Newbury and West Berkshire Saturday 30^th April to take questions on how the UK’s membership of the EU is good for business, employment and the environment in our area. 

Contacts 

 http://westberkslibdems.org.uk/en/
 http://www.strongerin.co.uk/#PuBoSlR4k73pQwfS.97
 

Thanks  to West Berkshire Liberal Democrats for providing data for the post.