The #LibDem Fightback

Maybe I will soon stop blogging here as sadly, Brexit looms and the referendum has come and gone.  Or I may continue as I still have a voice, as does the rest of the 48% who voted to stay.  

This morning I got chatting with a friendly young barista.  The subject of his travel plans came up.  He had been reading that Brexit would make them more complex and was unimpressed.  'I wanted to remain in the EU ' he said,  'but I didn't vote'.  In his next breath he told me that several of his mates voted to leave as a joke.  They didn't think it would happen.  Well, it has and it is not a laughing matter.  Welcome to the dysfunctional world that is Brexit Britain.  

Fortunately, the LibDem Fightback is well under way.  And I am proud to be part of it.  I write this fresh from the Liberal Democrat Autumn Conference and with renewed enthusiasm for the EU cause. 

If you want to hear about the Liberal Democrat Plan carry on reading.  It's great news. Since the referendum we've seen some incredible momentum. We've gained almost 20,000 members, and since the election of Theresa May as PM we have won eighteen by-elections with huge swings.

If you also want to fight for an open, tolerant and united Britain, who want to be the real opposition to this Conservative Brexit Government, then join the Liberal Democrats today.  Go to our website now: www.libdems.org.uk/join

Here are some of our Newbury Liberal Democrat team with the Leader, Tim Farron, second left. 

At conference, Tim Farron explained our plan for where we, as a country go from here, in terms of Brexit and the politics of fear, division and hate.

He began with a story from just after the referendum.  At the start of his speech, he spoke about a meeting held in Preston, the town where he grew up and learnt his values, to talk about the referendum and the realisation he'd had there.  He said 'The people in that church hall in Preston, they'd voted differently to me (ie to leave) but I thought, you know what, we're on the same side here.

We see a London-centric no, Westminster-centric approach from politicians and the media. Treating the provinces as alien curiosities.

Those people in Preston and Sunderland and Newport see a divide between those who win and those who lose. When the country is booming, they don't see the benefit. And when the country is in decline they are the first to be hit.  Those people ... wanted, quite understandably, to give the powerful a kicking. So they did.' 

At that meeting they talked about low wages. About poor housing. About strains on hospitals and schools. Their problems weren't caused by the European Union, they were caused by powerful people who took them for granted.

By politicians who have spent decades chasing cheap headlines and short-term success for their political careers, and never acting in the long-term interests of the whole country.

Tim then set out how he wants to reach out to Leave voters... ' I wanted Britain to remain in the European Union and I still do. But we have got to listen, to learn and to understand why millions of people voted to leave. We can't just tell them they're wrong and stick our fingers in our ears.

So I want to do two things.

I want to persuade those who voted leave that we understand and respect their reasons, that we are determined to take head on the things about today’s Britain that have left so many people feeling ignored and I want to give them their say over what comes next.

The Liberal Democrats have a plan. We know what we want and we know where we want to take our country. When Theresa May does agree a deal with the EU, we want the people to decide.

Not a re-run of the referendum, not a second referendum, but a referendum on the terms of the as-yet-unknown Brexit deal.'

So, that's the first part of the plan, here is the second.  It concerns NHS and social care in England. 

About this Tim said  'For years, politicians have chosen to paper over the cracks rather than come clean about what it will really take – what it will really cost – not just to keep the NHS afloat but to give people the care and the treatment that they deserve.  And that means, finally, bringing the NHS and the social care system together.  We need to face the hard truth that the NHS needs more money – a lot more money – not just to stop it lurching from crisis to crisis but so that it can meet the needs and the challenges it will face in the years ahead. So that it can be the service we all need it to be for the long-term. That means having the most frank and honest conversation about the NHS that the country has ever had. What Beveridge did for the 20th century, we need for the 21st century.  We need to face the hard truth that the NHS needs more money – a lot more money.  We will go to the British people with the results of our Beveridge Commission and we will offer a new deal for health and social care, honest about the cost, bold about the solution. If the only way to fund a health service that meets the needs of everyone, is to raise taxes, Liberal Democrats will raise taxes.' 

The third part of the plan is simply this; we have a message for everyone who wants a real opposition to the Tories.  Whichever party you supported at the last election, we all know that Britain needs a decent, united opposition. So if Corbyn’s Labour has left the stage, then we will take the stage.  Britain needs a strong opposition. The Liberal Democrats will be that strong opposition.

This is LibDem plan to build a Britain that's open, tolerant and united....  

I had some concerns about the democratic validity of another referendum.  I submitted a question to Tim Farron and to my amazement I was chosen to ask it.  

I asked Tim 'is a second referendum democratic?'  Tim replied that it was a great democratic oppurtunity, for people to have their say when the facts about the exit deal where known.  I then asked the supplementary question 'How would a person who voted to leave first time round and then also voted leave second time round would feel if the results of the referendum of the terms of the deal was such that the deal was rejected and we remained in the EU?'  

Tim Farron is convinced that this would still be a healthy situation democratically and had me convinced when he said that we would never forgive ourselves if our kids said to us in twenty years time 'Why didn't you do something? You didn't fight brexit hard enough'. 

The LibDem Fightback is well under way. Join us
www.libdems.org.uk/join

Reference

http://www.libdems.org.uk/tim-farron-autumn-conference-16

Debate

Today is the day I am going to see the debate on the need for a second refendum.  Have been looking forward to it, despite the fact there will be no vote and no further stage.  This makes a bit of a mockery of the whole thing but I hope to learn things.  

It is also the day to take the sewing machine to the person who has more current need of it than me. Yes, the Art Historian.  So I set off on an adventure by taxi, (only discovered at the bus stop that my bus was cut; there wasn't enough public opposition is the official line, but I for one could not back buses ahead of kids and mental health, so thanks to austerity, the only winners are the taxi drivers), train (15 mins late) and shanks pony.  I have tea and wait for her outside the RA.  You can just see the lawn to the right. It replaces the monstrosity and is more pleasant on the eye. However, it is for cinema screenings, the like of which cannot be afforded by the AH's generation. 

The third important thing about today is that it is, or would be my lovely Mum's 86th birthday. I am wearing the hedgehog charm which I saved from her charm bracelet.  I sold the latter, on her instructions; she knew I'm not a bracelet person.  I remember all the years we bought her charms for special occasions.  Happy times. 

After a nice lunch I walk through St. James's Park to Westminster. 

I queue ten minutes for a pass and then here I am.  The wonderful Gothic building is inspiring, easy to access and well worth a visit.  The cafe is reasonable to my surprise.  

I am transfixed for two hours.  There will be no consequences, no vote, no referral to the House of Commons, nada.  So in that respect the public are short changed, as Caroline Lucas says to me afterwards.  To my surprise, I do a U-turn.   Here is the message I just posted for our StrongerIn page.

  

Hello All, I have just been to the debate on the petition calling for a second referendum.  It was SO interesting.  I even got to talk to Caroline Lucas at the end.  She, Chuka Umunna and David Lammy made all the points we have made in the past very eloquently.  I have, however, come away feeling differently about things.  I feel that any parliamentary vote or second referendum is treating the 52% with disdain and smacks of metropolitan elitism.  I do believe we should push for access to the single market, the right to remain for EU citizens living here and for that 350 million for the NHS.  I think this will be my focus.  I know the manifesto group said 'stop Brexit' but it said all this stuff too; I am not divorcing you lot!  That Ian Paisley character said 'careful what you wish for' and I see a lot of unrest if the 48% get this wrong.  What do people think?  Of course I may wake up feeling a little different......

So now it is homewards on a train which, miraculously is running to time!  

Join the 48%

I awoke on Friday and realised my nightmare was a reality. Scotland, Ireland, London and a few other places including West Berkshire, where we live, had voted to Remain in the EU but the national result was for 'Brexit'.

The scenario many people on the Remain side had predicted had been labelled 'Project Fear' but now it is 'Project Reality'.   Markets are tumbling, David Cameron has offered his resignation and Nicola Sturgeon is preparing for a second referendum on Scottish Independence. 

Right wing Politicians in France and Holland have begun crying out for their own referendums.  

The 'United Kingdon' and the European Union itself is beginning to fall apart.

I campaigned for Remain and was shocked to discover how angry people are. They are fed up with not being able to get appointments with GPs, not being able to get school places and a shortage of housing. Leave's effective but meaning less slogan 'take back control' seduced them. But it was and is a lie. 

People feel ignored by Westminster politicians, exploited by big employers and badly let down. The real problem is that government funding has not met the demands of the increased population. Our public services have been squeezed by Tory policies.  Now the right wing of the government will be in charge and I fear what Leave voters wished for will not come true. On the contrary 'decent people' as Nigel Farage calls them will be even more ignored and the big corporations who run the world will continue to avoid tax and award themselves big bonuses. 

What does not help matters is that our two major political parties are in disarray and fighting amongst themselves. Meanwhile, having pretty much sacrificed themselves for economic stability in 2010, the Liberal Democrats were nearly wiped out at the last election. Now we are the only party which is united and tolerant.

I am asking all those who supported us and voted Remain to consider joining the Liberal Democrats and helping us locally and nationally. 

This referendum result will affect us all for the rest of our lives so let's come together to build an effective opposition. 
Contact details are as follows 

https://libdems.secure.force.com/LiberalDemocrats/NewMemberRegistration

The EU and immigration

Whilst working in the Stronger In campaign I have noticed that people are very concerned about immigration.  I wanted to find out whether their fear that EU nationals are taking British jobs and keeping UK wages low is justified.  I Consulted an article by Alan Travis in The Guardian, 21 May.

The Office of National Statistics reports that while the numbers of EU workers in Britain has risen by 700,000 since 2013, they are outnumbered by the extra one million Britons who have gone into employment in the same period. The number of British citizens working in the UK labour force is now 28 million. That compares with 3 million foreign nationals.

As the economist Jonathan Portes has pointed out, there is not a fixed number of jobs to go round: “It’s true that, if an immigrant takes a job, then a British worker can’t take that job, but it doesn’t mean he or she won’t find another one that may have been created, directly or indirectly, as a result of immigration.”

EU migrants more than pay their way. Those who arrived in Britain in the last four years paid £2.54bn more in income tax and national insurance than they received in tax credits or child benefit in 2013-14. The Office of Budget Responsibility has estimated that their labour contribution is helping to grow the economy by an additional 0.6% a year.

But, what about the claim that immigrants are depressing wages, particularly for the low-paid?

The most recent research from the centre for economic performance at the London School of Economics shows that areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

Several studies have shown a small negative effect of migration on the wages of low-skilled workers in certain sectors in certain parts of the country, particularly care workers, shop assistants, and restaurant and bar workers. The effect has been measured at less than 1% over a period of eight years.

The LSE’s Jonathan Wadsworth said: “The bottom line, which may surprise many people, is that EU immigration has not harmed the pay, jobs or public services enjoyed by Britons. In fact, for the most part it has likely made us better off."

Would Brexit make any difference? 

John Van Reenen, co-author of the LSE study, says: “The immigration impact hinges on the post-Brexit trade deal, if we go for a deal like Norway or Switzerland, immigrant numbers won’t change much, as free movement of labour is part of the package. But if we go for a looser trading arrangment, we lose out much more from falls in trade and foreign investment,” he said.

I hope this will reassure those readers who are concerned about this matter.  It seems immigration is good for our country.  So is EU membership.  It is the best way for us to ensure peace and prosperity.  

British, European or Both?

To quote the New York Times, finding economists who say they believe that a Brexit will spur the British economy is like looking for a doctor who thinks forswearing vegetables is the key to a long life.

However, whilst I was  leafleting for Stronger In in Northbrook Street last Saturday, the passers-by favouring Brexit seemed more concerned about issues other than the economy.

 Again quoting the New York Times, it seems an argument over British identity is masquerading as an economic debate.  This is about much more than economic union to most people.  As the referendum approaches, the politics of identity are colliding with the economics of global trade.  People are concerned about our sovereignty. I struggled to understand what that word meant, no one talked about it before David Cameron decided to hold this referendum.   I consulted wikipedia.  I learnt that Sovereignty is understood in jurisprudence as 'the full right and power of a governing body to govern itself without any interference from outside sources or bodies'. 

 Time and again and again people said they did not like being told what to do by Brussels.  I wonder if their concerns are really justified.  Brussels does not control us.  The European Parliament is directly elected by us just like the Westminster Parliament.  In many ways the European Parliament is more democratic than Westminster.  It has better methods of ensuring that controversial legislation is not automatically agreed.  As a former Conservative UK minister once said. “It is very hard to find an EU regulation of significance that has been forced on an unwilling British minister who voted against it”. Nothing is passed unless all member countries have explicitly agreed by treaty to do so and even then, each piece of legislation must be agreed by national governments. For tax and foreign affairs, the requirement for this agreement is complete unanimity, and in other areas, there is a very high ‘qualified majority’ threshold.  People accuse the EU of bureaucracy yet The European Commission has fewer employees than a medium-sized city council in the UK. So we are not controlled by Brussels; we are equal participants in a union.  

The European Commission doesn’t make laws. It only makes proposals, which are then debated, amended and passed (or rejected) by elected national governments and directly-elected MEPs. Only 13.2% of laws affecting the UK have been agreed at European level in the past 20 years. 

EU legislation is an exercise in cutting red tape. We need common rules for the common market to protect workers, consumers and the environment.  Instead of 28 divergent sets of national rules we have a single set of pan-European rules.  

I hope this will reassure some readers that it is OK to be part of the EU, which is not a massive control freak organisation wishing to suffocate us, but a trading union of fellow Europeans.  And what can be wrong with being European?  When it boils down to it we are all descended form the Romans, French and Vikings with perhaps a hint of Spanish Armada here and there.  

Not since the fall of the Berlin Wall has Europe confronted such a profound question about it's future.   I really hope people realise we really are safer, better off and stronger in the European Union, which will surely destabilise if we leave. 

Photo

Financial Experts are now imploring us to remain in the EU

A vote to leave the EU next month could precipitate a stock market crash and steep fall in house prices, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, who was in London on thiscweek to present the fund’s annual health check on the UK economy, delivered this dire warning. 

“We have looked at all the scenarios. We have done our homework and we haven’t found anything positive to say about a Brexit vote,” she said.

The Bank of England has also given a starkest warning that a UK vote to leave the EU could hit the economy.  Mark Carney, the Bank's governor, warned that the risks of leaving "could possibly include a technical recession".  The latest minutes from the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said that a leave vote may cause both growth and sterling to fall and unemployment to rise. 

Chancellor George Osborne said the UK now had a "clear and unequivocal warning" about the risks of a Leave vote, 

These warnings are very clear and support earlier expert forecasts.  

Our businesses and inward investors are emphatic: Britain must stay in.  85% of British manufacturers want us to remain in EU.  The Federation of Small Businesses  (FSB)  argued in 2014 that the EU is good for business: 20% of members of the FSB trade overseas. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) is a strong advocate for EU membership. The head of the UK government’s export credit guarantee agency reports that EU membership is “critical” for exporting around the world. A group of top free-market economists pointed out in 2014 that UK withdrawal from the EU would be a “grave threat” and would cause foreign investment to dry up. The Institute of Directors, Financial sector of the City of London and British Chamber of Commerce all support remaining in the EU. 

More about markets 

The EU is the world’s biggest single market; it is the UK’s biggest trading partner, accounting for over half of our world exports. We export more to Holland alone than to the entirety of the Commonwealth.  EU countries provide about two thirds of incoming goods and services.  An independent poll of the top 500 British Businesses in 2015 found that 99% of boardroom bosses want to remain in the EU.  Our government estimates that EU membership is worth £3000 a year to every British family. And the budget for the whole EU is just 1% of GDP, compared to about 49% spent by national governments. That’s just 2% of our public spending each year.  Each country’s contribution to the EU budget is proportional to its wealth: wealthier countries pay more. Over the 7-year cycle 2007-2013 our net annual contribution was about £63 per person (£3.8 billion). The UK’s contribution is much lower than other similar sized economies such as Germany and France, partly because we get a special rebate.  The financial benefits of access to the single market are estimated to be £30-£90 bn/year: a return on investment of 800% - 2370%.  

The EU and Womens' Rights

The Labour MP Harriet Harman claimed this week that  Brexit could derail the fight for women’s rights.

Harriet, who has been a leading campaigner on gender equality for four decades, said the EU had been the key to forcing through a series of reforms, including on equal pay, maternity rights and paternity leave.  She explained that the EU had demanded that female cleaners working for British councils had to be paid as well as male binmen, who had much better rates negotiated by their union. 

See

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/12/brexit-could-derail-fight-for-womens-rights-says-harriet-harman