In a major economic modelling exercise involving nine different post Brexit policy scenarios, Oxford Economics said that in its best case scenario the UK’s GDP would be just 0.1 per cent lower by 2030 and income per head of population could actually rise by £40. But that benign outcome would only be achieved if the Government did not cut European Union net migration substantially. It would also be dependent on ministers signing a trade deal with the EU severely limiting the UK’s ability to make its own bilateral trade deals with other non-European countries. Britain would also have to continue to make contributions to the EU’s budget. “The long-term impact of Brexit need not be severe. But benign scenarios involve retaining aspects of EU membership: continued high immigration, restrictions on our ability to make trade deals with non-EU countries and continuing to pay money to Brussels,” said Henry Worthington of Oxford Economics.
In other words, something is being made into a problem when it isn't one. In my view it presents a simplistic argument which appeals to the not so nice side of human nature. But that is just an opinion.
True, this is just the economic aspect of immigration. Perhaps Brexit would make worse the threat to the UK from terrorism? Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6 believes that Brexit would allow the UK “greater control over immigration from the EU”. But how significant are migrants from Europe to the terrorist threat in or against the UK? During Mr Dearlove's stance as head of MI6 from 1999 until 2004, the flow of extremism was more from the UK to the EU than vice versa.
It is no coincidence that there has been peace and cooperation in Europe ever since the first faltering steps were taken which ultimately gave birth to the EU. The EU is a concept which binds us together and smooths out conflict. As someone whose parents were deeply affected in many ways by the brutality of the Second World War, to me this is the most important case for remaining in the EU, 'warts and all'. My father bailed out of a disabled air craft and has the silken thread of a parachute to thank for his remaining forty six years. Two of these were spent as a prisoner in Germany, an experience which changed him fundamentally. Unimaginable in this day and age, but it could happen again if the continent were destabilised.
After the war, European integration was seen as an antidote to the extreme nationalism which had devastated the continent. The 1948 Hague Congress was a pivotal moment in European history, as it led to the creation of the European Movement International and of the College of Europe, where Europe's future leaders would live and study together. In 1957, The Treaty of Rome was signed by Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Germany. This created the European Economic Community, which was transformed in the European Union by the Maastricht Treaty of 1993. Since then the membership has grown and now consists of twenty eight nations.
In 2012, the EU received the Nobel Peace Prize for having "contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy, and human rights in Europe."
No comments:
Post a Comment