Financial Experts are now imploring us to remain in the EU

A vote to leave the EU next month could precipitate a stock market crash and steep fall in house prices, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, who was in London on thiscweek to present the fund’s annual health check on the UK economy, delivered this dire warning. 

“We have looked at all the scenarios. We have done our homework and we haven’t found anything positive to say about a Brexit vote,” she said.

The Bank of England has also given a starkest warning that a UK vote to leave the EU could hit the economy.  Mark Carney, the Bank's governor, warned that the risks of leaving "could possibly include a technical recession".  The latest minutes from the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said that a leave vote may cause both growth and sterling to fall and unemployment to rise. 

Chancellor George Osborne said the UK now had a "clear and unequivocal warning" about the risks of a Leave vote, 

These warnings are very clear and support earlier expert forecasts.  

Our businesses and inward investors are emphatic: Britain must stay in.  85% of British manufacturers want us to remain in EU.  The Federation of Small Businesses  (FSB)  argued in 2014 that the EU is good for business: 20% of members of the FSB trade overseas. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) is a strong advocate for EU membership. The head of the UK government’s export credit guarantee agency reports that EU membership is “critical” for exporting around the world. A group of top free-market economists pointed out in 2014 that UK withdrawal from the EU would be a “grave threat” and would cause foreign investment to dry up. The Institute of Directors, Financial sector of the City of London and British Chamber of Commerce all support remaining in the EU. 

More about markets 

The EU is the world’s biggest single market; it is the UK’s biggest trading partner, accounting for over half of our world exports. We export more to Holland alone than to the entirety of the Commonwealth.  EU countries provide about two thirds of incoming goods and services.  An independent poll of the top 500 British Businesses in 2015 found that 99% of boardroom bosses want to remain in the EU.  Our government estimates that EU membership is worth £3000 a year to every British family. And the budget for the whole EU is just 1% of GDP, compared to about 49% spent by national governments. That’s just 2% of our public spending each year.  Each country’s contribution to the EU budget is proportional to its wealth: wealthier countries pay more. Over the 7-year cycle 2007-2013 our net annual contribution was about £63 per person (£3.8 billion). The UK’s contribution is much lower than other similar sized economies such as Germany and France, partly because we get a special rebate.  The financial benefits of access to the single market are estimated to be £30-£90 bn/year: a return on investment of 800% - 2370%.