The EU and immigration

Whilst working in the Stronger In campaign I have noticed that people are very concerned about immigration.  I wanted to find out whether their fear that EU nationals are taking British jobs and keeping UK wages low is justified.  I Consulted an article by Alan Travis in The Guardian, 21 May.

The Office of National Statistics reports that while the numbers of EU workers in Britain has risen by 700,000 since 2013, they are outnumbered by the extra one million Britons who have gone into employment in the same period. The number of British citizens working in the UK labour force is now 28 million. That compares with 3 million foreign nationals.

As the economist Jonathan Portes has pointed out, there is not a fixed number of jobs to go round: “It’s true that, if an immigrant takes a job, then a British worker can’t take that job, but it doesn’t mean he or she won’t find another one that may have been created, directly or indirectly, as a result of immigration.”

EU migrants more than pay their way. Those who arrived in Britain in the last four years paid £2.54bn more in income tax and national insurance than they received in tax credits or child benefit in 2013-14. The Office of Budget Responsibility has estimated that their labour contribution is helping to grow the economy by an additional 0.6% a year.

But, what about the claim that immigrants are depressing wages, particularly for the low-paid?

The most recent research from the centre for economic performance at the London School of Economics shows that areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

Several studies have shown a small negative effect of migration on the wages of low-skilled workers in certain sectors in certain parts of the country, particularly care workers, shop assistants, and restaurant and bar workers. The effect has been measured at less than 1% over a period of eight years.

The LSE’s Jonathan Wadsworth said: “The bottom line, which may surprise many people, is that EU immigration has not harmed the pay, jobs or public services enjoyed by Britons. In fact, for the most part it has likely made us better off."

Would Brexit make any difference? 

John Van Reenen, co-author of the LSE study, says: “The immigration impact hinges on the post-Brexit trade deal, if we go for a deal like Norway or Switzerland, immigrant numbers won’t change much, as free movement of labour is part of the package. But if we go for a looser trading arrangment, we lose out much more from falls in trade and foreign investment,” he said.

I hope this will reassure those readers who are concerned about this matter.  It seems immigration is good for our country.  So is EU membership.  It is the best way for us to ensure peace and prosperity.